What a difference a couple of years make. Turn back the clock to the winter of 2020-2021, the post Covid effect is in full swing: People have been driven out of their homes into the outdoors, family recreation is more popular than ever, interest rates are down, stimulus money has been pumped into the system and there is snow on the ground. In a rush to get outdoors people flock to the power sports dealers and buy every snowmobile they can. Soon the glut of back inventory is gone and attention turns to the used market- every 1990’s era snowmobile that turns over and has spark is drug out of the barn and resurrected and either put into use or sold as if it were made of gold- prices for used snowmobiles hit insane levels. Boots, gloves, jackets, snow pants and helmets disappear from store shelves, by spring of 2021 hordes of new and old snowmobilers decide it is time to buy a new snowmobile- spring orders go insane for the MY 2022 sleds- the industry has been reborn. But then the supply chain issues hit and those MY 2022 sleds don’t get delivered until March or April of 2022, orders get cancelled and what could have been one of the biggest sales years ever is handcuffed by the failing supply chain resulting in the inability of the manufacturers to make new snowmobiles- some riders become disillusioned- but hope is not lost- people still order MY 2023 sleds fearing that it may take until spring of 2023 to get them- supply chains improve- sleds get delivered on time and to top it all off the winter of 2022-2023 is a snowmobiler’s dream with tons of snow everywhere and the industry is riding high.
Then it happens- the snowball is pushed off the top of the hill and starts to roll. Rising demand inflates prices to the point that people start rethinking the wisdom of purchasing a new sled. A top of the line sled now costs $20,000+ and an entry level snowmobile that used to cost $8,000 just a few years earlier now costs you $12,000 and all that gets you is a boring 550 fan, a gallon of oil now costs $100, helmets creep up to $500, gloves cost you $200. Inflation in the real world rears its head and prices of everything skyrocket, what used to be a $20 bill at the grocery store is now $40. Interest rates to take out a loan on anything are insane.
Yamaha decides to get out of the game and then Mother Nature deals its death blow: a winter of no snow- anywhere- even the mountains don’t get their usual snowfall and nearly all of North America has a snowless winter. On top of that, many of the snowmobiles that had been bought over the past few years are plagued with recalls. Showrooms are full of unbought sleds and unpurchased gear. And the issues don’t just end there- it falls to the entire recreational vehicle industry- not only are people not buying snowmobiles they aren’t buying boats or watercraft or side by sides- and a $40,000 price tag on a side by side doesn’t help- now you are paying more for power sports vehicles than you are paying for cars- not to mention all of the additional gear you need and the trailer to pull them around.
So here we sit- going from an unprecedented resurgence in the sport just a few short years ago to being on the brink of death. The stock prices of BRP and Polaris have plummeted, Yamaha is gone, Arctic Cat is pausing production and there are overpriced sleds and ATV’s collecting dust on showroom floors. Even if prices were reasonable no one can afford the interest on a loan. The problem has spread from the manufacturers to the very fabric of snowmobiling itself- the trail system. Registrations in Minnesota are down by 60% and the story across the country is similar. Why spend money to register a snowmobile when you might not get snow, especially when you are struggling to put food on the table? That mentality has put the states in a big hole. The funds to groom which are fed by registrations aren’t there so if it does snow we could be in for some big problems late in the season. There is another issue- the average age of snowmobilers keeps going up and unfortunately the base is literally starting to die off and the younger generation has no money to spend on recreational vehicles when housing and interest rates burn up so much of their cash. Asking one of these millennials to buy a $20,000 sled is the equivalent of asking them to do brain surgery without any training or medical instruments.
Is there any relief in sight? One thing that came out of the Covid era is the realization by many people that those 90’s era sleds although not as advanced or comfortable as the modern sled is still pretty darn fun, easy to work on and doesn’t cost them their first born child to put out on the trail and because so many of them were resurrected during Covid there are plenty of them around in the used market for 5-10% of what a new sled costs you. At that rate you could buy ten 1990’s era sleds and ride them until they blow up for the cost of one new top of the line snowmobile. It is hard for the industry to compete with that- especially if it only snows for two months.
So is there any hope? Yes there is. It is often said in sports that winning cures everything and it does. For snowmobiling SNOW cures everything, and that is literally what it will take to breathe life back into the sport. The 1990’s boom started off with one thing- early snowfall in 1991 and it kept coming for a half dozen years. The same thing could happen again. Long winters means people riding- If you get early snow and winters are long even the casual snowmobiler gets the urge to get out on the trail- that starts piling up miles. More miles means more wear and eventually those old sleds do get used up- it has been happening since the 1960s. Those 1990’s and early 2000’s sleds become vintage sleds and become snowmobiles that only get ridden on vintage weekends. The market also forces the manufacturer’s hand- adapt or die. There will be a demand for a simpler less expensive sled- we aren’t talking a 550 fan or underpowered 600 either- build a regular 600 with a basic setup for an affordable price and you will own the market. All the bells and whistles are nice but the average rider doesn’t need them. They want a dependable engine with good power and that is what a full blown 600 gives you. Combine that with your standard no frills front suspension and rear skid that used to be high end ten years ago and you are golden. The reason the Indy 500 dominated the 90’s is because it did just that- enough dependable power for the average rider and enough good suspension for the average rider- I you wanted to upgrade to something fire breathing and crazy with a sweet XC suspension you could get it but for the average snowmobiler the Indy 500 gave them everything they wanted. The 550 or little 600 is fine for teens or occasional riders but the everyday guy wants an inexpensive 600 that gets the job done, give them a base 600 and you win the market, then offer all the exotic crap for the old guy with money falling out of his pockets or the young guy that needs to impress his friends. The reason Ford dominated the world with the model T is because he wanted a car the average person could afford. It’s time for one of the manufacturers to wake up, whoever does it first wins. But regardless of the economy, interest rates or the manufacturers, the one key ingredient we need is…SNOW! LET’S GET SOME!!!
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